CRITICAL UPDATE: 12:46 PM, 10/6

Reports form an Air Force plane indicate that Hurricane Matthew has continued to strengthen. Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher gusts – a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is possible, and Matthew should remain a Category 4 hurricane while it approaches the Florida coast. Matthew is centered at 11 a.m EDT about 25 miles (40 km) west-northwest of Nassau and 180 miles (290 km) southwest of W. Palm Beach, Fla.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the Central and Northwest Bahamas, and along the U.S. east coast from north of Golden Beach, Florida, to Edisto Beach, South Carolina. including Lake Okeechobee. A Hurricane Watch is in effect from north of Edisto Beach to South Santee River South Carolina. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Chokoloskee to Golden Beach and in the Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge eastward including Florida Bay, and from the Anclote River to Suwannee River. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from north of Chokoloskee to the Anclote River. Interests elsewhere in the Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and in the Carolinas should monitor the progress of Matthew.

Matthew is likely to produce devastating impacts from storm
surge, extreme winds, and heavy rains in the northwestern Bahamas today, and along extensive portions of the east coast of Florida tonight.

Evacuations are not just a coastal event. Strong winds will occur well inland from the coast, and residents of mobile homes under evacuation orders are urged to heed those orders.

Hurricane winds increase very rapidly with height, and residents
of high-rise buildings are at particular risk of strong winds. Winds
at the top of a 30-story building will average one Saffir-Simpson
category higher than the winds near the surface.

When a hurricane is forecast to take a track roughly parallel to a coastline, as Matthew is forecast to do from Florida through South Carolina, it becomes very difficult to specify impacts at any one location. Only a small deviation of the track to the left of the NHC forecast could bring the core of a major hurricane onshore within the hurricane warning area in Florida and Georgia. Modest deviations to the right could keep much of the hurricane-force winds offshore. Similarly large variations in impacts are possible in the hurricane watch and warning areas in northeast Georgia and South Carolina.

The National Hurricane Center is issuing Potential Storm Surge
Flooding Maps, and Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning gaphics for Matthew. It is important to remember that the Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map does not represent a forecast of expected inundation, it rather depicts a reasonable worst-case scenario – the amount of inundation that has a 10 percent chance of being exceeded. In addition, because the Flooding Map is based on inputs that extend out only to about 72 hours, it best represents the flooding potential in those locations within the watch and warning areas in Florida and Georgia.

Get the latest on Matthew by going directly to the NHC website atwww.hurricanes.gov

 

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UPDATE: 1:34 PM EDT, 10/4

The eye of extremely dangerous Hurricane Matthew is heading for eastern Cuba, centered as of 11 a.m. EDT about 90 miles from that location. Maximum sustained winds remain near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher gusts – a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir- Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible during the next couple of days, but Matthew is expected toremain a powerful hurricane through at least Wednesday night.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Haiti, the Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguin, Granma, and Las Tunas and for all of the Bahamas. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the Cuban province of Camaguey and along the east coast of Florida from Deerfield Beach to the Volusia/Brevard county line. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for – Dominican Republic from Barahona westward to the border with Haiti and the Turks and Caicos Islands. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Dominican Republic from Puerto Plata westward to the border with Haiti and in Southeast Florida from the Seven Mile Bridge in the Florida Keys to south of Deerfield Beach, and Lake Okeechobee.

Matthew is likely to produce devastating impacts from storm surge, extreme winds, heavy rains, flash floods, and/or mudslides in portions of the watch and warning areas in Haiti, Cuba, and the Bahamas. Please consult statements from the meteorological services and other government officials in those countries. Direct hurricane impacts are possible in Florida later this week. Tropical storm and/or hurricane watches have been issued for portions of the Florida peninsula and the Florida Keys. Tropical storm or hurricane conditions could affect portions of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina later this week or this weekend, even if the center of Matthew remains offshore. It is too soon to specify what, if any, direct impacts Matthew might have on the remainder of the U.S. east coast farther north. At a minimum, very dangerous beach and boating conditions are likely along much of the U.S. east coast later this week and weekend.

Get the latest on Matthew by going directly to the NHC website atwww.hurricanes.gov

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UPDATE: 8:10 PM EDT, 10/3

Powerful and dangerous Hurricane Matthew is sending life-threatening rain, wind and storm surge to Haiti tonight. The hurricane in centered at 5 p.m .EDT about 225 miles (360 km) southwest of Port Au Prince, Haiti. Maximum sustained winds remain near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher gusts – a dangerous category 4 hurricane on the Saffir- Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible during the next couple of days, but Matthew is expected to remain a powerful hurricane through Wednesday.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Haiti, the Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguin, Granma, and Las Tunas, the Southeast Bahamas, including the Inaguas, Mayaguana, Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, and Ragged Island, and the Central Bahamas, including Long Island, Exuma, Rum Cay, San Salvador, and Cat Island. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the Cuban province of Camaguey Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Northwest Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island, Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Jamaica and the Dominican Republic from Barahona westward to the border with Haiti, and a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Dominican Republic from Puerto Plata westward to the border with Haiti. Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola, the Bahamas, and in the Florida Peninsula and the Florida Keys should monitor the progress of Matthew.

On the forecast track, the center of Matthew will approach southwestern Haiti tonight, move near eastern Cuba late Tuesday, and move near or over portions of the southeastern and central Bahamas Tuesday night and Wednesday.Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue spreading across Haiti this evening, reach eastern Cuba tonight, the Southeast Bahamas early Tuesday, and the Central Bahamas Tuesday night, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.Hurricane conditions are expected to first reach Haiti tonight, eastern Cuba Tuesday, the Southeast Bahamas late Tuesday, and the Central Bahamas on Wednesday.

Direct hurricane impacts are possible in Florida later this week. Tropical storm and/or hurricane watches could be issued sometime tonight or early tomorrow for portions of the Florida peninsula and the Florida Keys. Tropical storm or hurricane conditions could affect portions of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina later this week or this weekend, even if the center of Matthew remains offshore. It is too soon to specify what, if any, direct impacts Matthew might have on the remainder of the U.S. east coast. At a minimum, very dangerous beach and boating conditions are likely along much of the U.S. east coast later this week and weekend.

For the latest information, go directly to the NHC website atwww.hurrricanes.gov

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UPDATE: 6:03 PM EDT, 10/2/2016

The NHC says powerful and dangerous Hurricane Matthew is maintaining its Category 4 intensity on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible during the next couple of days, but Matthew is expected to remain a powerful and dangerous hurricane into Tuesday.

Matthew is centered as of 5 p.m. EDT about 270 miles (435 km) south-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica. A Hurricane Warning continues for Jamaica Haiti, and the Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguin, Granma, and Las Tunas; a Hurricane Watch continues for the Cuban province of Camaguey and the Southeastern Bahamas, including the Inaguas, Mayaguana, Acklins, Crooked Island, and Long Cay, and the Turks & Caicos Islands; a Tropical Storm Warning continues for the Dominican Republic from Barahona westward to the border with Haiti; and a Tropical Storm Watch continues for the Dominican Republic from Puerto Plata westward to the border with Haiti. Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola and in the Bahamas should monitor the progress of Matthew.

On the forecast track, the center of Matthew will approach southwestern Haiti and Jamaica on Monday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach Jamaica and Haiti tonight, and eastern Cuba early Monday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Jamaica and Haiti on Monday, and eastern Cuba Monday night. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the southern coast of the Dominican Republic within the warning area by tonight.

Although the official forecast continues to show a track east of Florida, it is still too soon to rule out possible possible hurricane impacts there. It is also too soon to know whether, or how, Matthew might affect the remainder of the United States east coast.

For the latest on Matthew, go directly to the NHC website at www.hurricanes.gov

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UPDATE: 7:40 AM EDT 10/2

New warnings and watches have been issued in advance of Hurricane Matthew. A Hurricane Warning is now in effect for Jamaica Haiti, and the Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguin, Granma, and Las Tunas. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the Cuban province of Camaguey and the Southeastern Bahamas, including the Inaguas, Mayaguana, Acklins, Crooked Island, and Long Cay, and the Turks & Caicos Islands. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Dominican Republic from Barahona westward to the border with Haiti, and a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Dominican Republic from Puerto Plata westward to the border with Haiti. Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola and in the Bahamas should monitor the progress of Matthew.

Powerful Hurricane Matthew is centered as of 5 a.m. EDT about 335 miles (540 km) south-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica, moving toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue today, followed by a turn toward the north tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Matthew will approach southwestern Haiti and Jamaica on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher gusts – a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible during the next couple of days, but Matthew is expected to remain a powerful hurricane through Monday night.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach Jamaica and Haiti this evening, and eastern Cuba early Monday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Jamaica and Haiti on Monday, and eastern Cuba Monday night. There remains considerable spread in the models beyond day 3, so confidence in the details of the track forecast at days 4 and 5 is remains low. Therefore, it is too soon to rule out possible hurricane impacts from Matthew in Florida.

Get the latest on Matthew by going directly to the NHC website atwww.hurricanes.gov

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UPDATE: 9:21 PM EDT 10/1

A very powerful Hurricane Matthew is centered as of 8 pm. EDT about 385 miles (580 km) southeast of Kingston, Jamaica. Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher gusts – a dangerous category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible during the next couple of days, but Matthew is expected to remain a powerful hurricane through Monday.

A Hurricane Warning continues Jamaica and much of Haiti from east of Le Mole St. Nicholas to the northern border with the Dominican Republic. A Hurricane Watch continues for Haiti from east of Le Mole St. Nicholas to the northern border with the Dominican Republic, and for eastern Cuba from Camaguey province to Guantanamo province. Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola and in the Bahamas should monitor the progress of Matthew. A Hurricane Watch could be needed for portions of the Bahamas tonight or Sunday.

Matthew is barley moving, but a slow northwestward motion is expected to begin tonight. A turn toward the north-northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected Sunday, followed by a turn toward the north on Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Matthew will approach Jamaica and southwestern Haiti on Monday. There remains considerable spread in the models beyond day 3, so confidence in the details of the track forecast at days 4 and 5 is remains low. Therefore, it is too soon to rule out possible hurricane impacts from Matthew in Florida.

Get the latest on Matthew by going directly to the NHC website atwww.hurricanes.gov

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UPDATE: 1:30 PM EDT 10/1:

Hurricane Matthew remains a very powerful category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible this weekend, but Matthew is expected to remain a powerful hurricane through Monday.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Jamaica and for Haiti from the southern border with the Dominican Republic to Le Mole St. Nicholas. Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola and eastern Cuba should monitor the progress of Matthew. A Hurricane Watch could be needed for portions of eastern Cuba later today.

Matthew is centered as of 11 a.m. EDT about 365 miles (590 km) south-southwest of Port Au Prince, Haiti, and 390 miles (625 km) southeast of Kingston, Jamaica. On the forecast track, the center of Matthew will move across the central Caribbean Sea today and Sunday, and approach Jamaica and southwestern Haiti Sunday night and Monday. There is considerable spread in the models beyond day 3, so confidence in the details of the track forecast at days 4 and 5 is quite low. Therefore, it is too soon to rule out possible hurricane impacts from Matthew in Florida.

Get the latest on Matthew by going directly to the NHC website atwww.hurricanes.gov

MIAMI, Florida- The NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center says Hurricane Matthew has continued to rapidly strengthen at a remarkable rate today. Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher gusts- a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir- Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is possible tonight. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible through the weekend, but Matthew is expected to remain a powerful hurricane through Sunday.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Jamaica, a Tropical Storm Warning from the Colombia/Venezuela border to Riohacha, and a a Tropical Storm Watch for Haiti from the southern border with the Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince. Interests elsewhere along the coasts of Venezuela and Colombia, the remainder of Hispaniola, and in eastern Cuba, should also monitor the progress of Matthew.

Matthew is centered as of 5 p.m. EDT 465 miles (750 km) southeast of Kingston, Jamaica, and 75 miles (120 km) north of Punta Gallinas, Colombia. On the forecast track, the center of Matthew will move north of the Guajira Peninsula this tonight, move across the central Caribbean Sea on Saturday, and be near Jamaica on Sunday.

It is important to remind users that average NHC track forecast
errors are around 175 miles at day 4 and 230 miles at day 5.
Therefore, it is too soon to rule out possible hurricane impacts
from Matthew in Florida.

Get the latest on Matthew by going directly to the NHC website atwww.hurricanes.gov

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